Ukraine can await escalated violence from Russia, expert says

Ukraine can await an escalation in violence from the
Russian government, as with the Nov. 25 attack on its navy boats, Alexander
Vershbow, the former NATO deputy secretary general and Atlantic Council
distinguished fellow, said in an interview with the apostrophe.ua news site
published on Jan. 21. “I think a direct collision is possible,” he said.
“Though, perhaps this is not very likely since the Russians can achieve many of
their goals with more nuanced forms of aggression: cyberattacks,
disinformation, inciting separatism, corruption and other measures to create
instability in Ukraine. However, it’s necessary to be ready for new direct
military attacks, whether in the Azov Sea or to seize territories along the
Azov Sea coastline.”

The Russian government will try to use all its
instruments to interfere in this year’s Ukrainian presidential and
parliamentary elections, Vershbow said. “At minimum, to sow disorder and chaos.
At maximum, to bring to power accommodating leaders who are ready to accept
Russia’s dictates. I don’t think that is possible and they can believe that
they can achieve that.” Regardless of who wins the presidential elections, the
effectiveness of Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions will be decisive for
the nation’s future, Vershbow said. A new phase of reforms is necessary to
begin, he said, adding that Ukraine’s economic growth should be 6-7% yoy
annually. Ukraine also needs to reduce tensions with Hungary, which “influences
a bit Ukraine’s relations with NATO and its ability to fully cooperate with
NATO,” he said.

Western sanctions have influenced the stagnating
Russian economy, but “not as critically as if there were additional measures
from the U.S. and the EU,” Vershbow said. “Therefore Russia is vulnerable, but
unfortunately it is able to quite successfully divide the West and achieving a
political consensus on new sanctions against Russia is not easy.” It’s possible
for the West to affect vulnerable targets to influence the course of Russian
politics, he said. “But, unfortunately, the economic fall is not significant
enough to fundamentally bring changes in 2019.”

Zenon Zawada: We agree
with Vershbow’s expectation of escalated violence from Russia. We even go
further in stating that another direct Russian military strike on Ukraine is
only a matter of time with escalating tensions in Ukraine’s maritime zone and
the ongoing warfare in the Donbas region. This is further confirmed by U.S.
Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker, who said in an interview with Ukraine’s
1+1 television broadcast on Dec. 23 that “we should consider the realistic
likelihood that Russia will launch a new aggression.”

The Poroshenko administration is aware that another
round of Russian aggression is likely, if not inevitable, and may decide to bring
about such a conflict so that it works to its advantage, particularly if it
sees that it won’t be capable of securing the president’s re-election. Ukraine
is highly likely to have a pro-Western president and parliament after these
elections. But we agree with Vershbow that Russia will be aiming to incite
riots (similar to the Yellow Vests) and even armed insurgencies in the Russophile
southeastern regions.

As for Western sanctions on Russia, Vershbow’s
comments indicate that the Western establishment has reconciled with the fact
that they haven’t delivered the blow that had been expected. And he
acknowledges it will be even more difficult to impose more sanctions with
populist-nationalists gaining more power in Europe, which is likely to occur in
the European Parliament elections in May.  Quite the contrary, the current trends are in favor of their
relaxation.