Poroshenko election strategy risks war with Russia

Ukrainian President Poroshenko has chosen to worsen
relations with Russia to mobilize support for his presidential campaign,
heightening the potential for a large-scale war, Kostyantyn Gryshchenko,
Ukraine’s former foreign affairs minister, told the NewsOne television channel
on Jan. 6. “We are now in a threatening period in the conclusion of the
presidential campaign because the current president has chosen the tactic of
exacerbating relations with Russia, thinking that will mobilize those who will
potentially vote for him,” he said. “That fully conflicts with society’s demand
for seeking a peaceful resolution. So many unforeseen scenarios are possible
that can lead to a sharp escalation of the situation with using large-scale
military operations. In this way, we will further distance ourselves from a
peaceful settlement as much.”

Zenon Zawada: We agree
with this assessment in the sense that Poroshenko has chosen to mobilize his
voter base by intensifying nationalist policies, in virtually all spheres of life.
However, we disagree with the notion, implied by Gryshchenko, that Ukraine
should be accommodating the Kremlin, particularly after all the destruction
that it has imposed on Ukraine. Ultimately, it will be up to voters to decide
which course is best.

We also agree with Gryshchenko’s view that Poroshenko
risks instigating a large-scale war with Russia with his campaign strategy. We
believe the presidential administration is well aware that any Russian
aggression against Ukraine works in the president’s favor, and has been
engaging in provocative statements and assertive actions expecting to reap the
electoral benefits from any response. That has prompted the Russians to warn
that any further provocations could be devastating for Ukraine.

We share the widely held view that Russia is not
justified in expanding its hybrid war against Ukraine under any conditions,
including those introduced by Poroshenko. At the same time, we view an expanded
Russian military aggression against Ukraine as inevitable, with Poroshenko well
aware of that. Given that it’s inevitable, we believe the president is likely
to consider to manipulate these events on his own terms, to his own advantage
(in being re-elected).