U.S. preparing new round of military aid, sanctions, Herbst says

The U.S. government will offer military aid to Ukraine
and a new round of sanctions against Russia in the next three months, said John
Herbst, the director of the Atlantic Council think tank, in an interview
published on Jan. 1. There are enough arguments for offering anti-ship missiles
and patrol boats, and possibly other military equipment, he told the Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty news site. When asked about lethal armaments, Herbst
replied that the U.S. “has enough Harpoon missiles systems:” that can be
offered. “And possibly many contemporary missiles,” he said.

Support for Ukraine in the U.S. House is “very strong
now,” Herbst said, “it remains serious, and will possibly strengthen.”

Ukraine should receive a shipment of two Island-class
patrol boats by the summer, said Ihor Voronchenko, the commander of Ukraine’s
Navy Forces, in an interview with Deutsche Welle published on Dec. 28. The U.S.
Navy announced their transfer to Ukraine during President Poroshenko’s visit to
the U.S. in late September. Built 40 years ago, they are capable of operating
in harsh weather conditions and opening fire.

Zenon Zawada: With the U.S.
intensifying military aid to Ukraine, including lethal weapons, it’s now become
a question of whether this boosted aid is helping to prevent Russian
aggression, or creating a moral hazard that is being exploited by the Ukrainian
government. Although Ukraine has the legal right to enter the Kerch Strait and
Azov Sea, it has practically lost the ability to do so. Yet without strong U.S.
backing, it’s doubtful the Poroshenko administration would be making such bold
comments as vowing to return to these waterways.

Whether Ukraine attempts to cross the Kerch Strait
during the next three months will be very revealing. On the one hand,
Poroshenko doesn’t want to be accused of “provoking” Russia to boost his
support during an election campaign in which his poll numbers are weak. On the
other hand, Ukraine doesn’t want to set the precedent that it has allowed
Russia to monopolize the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea.

We are confident the Poroshenko administration
understands that another armed conflict in Ukraine’s maritime zone is
inevitable. A key question is whether it will decide to use the inevitability
of this conflict to its advantage, particularly during an election campaign in
which the president is significantly lagging his political nemesis.