Putin accuses Poroshenko of provoking Nov. 25 armed conflict

In his year-end press conference on Dec. 20, Russian
President Putin accused his Ukrainian counterpart of orchestrating the Nov. 25 conflict
in the Black Sea to boost his election ratings. “In this sense, yes, he
probably achieved his goal. At the expense of the country’s interest, I
believe. This is a bad way to boost ratings,” Putin said of President Petro
Poroshenko. Putin claimed the Ukrainian sailors captured by Russia, along with
their three ships, were “sent on this mission and some were expected to die in
the process.”

Recall on Nov. 25, three Ukrainian navy ships
attempted to cross the Kerch Strait into the Azov Sea. They were shot at by
Russian border officials, who detained the ships and two dozen crew members.
The next day, Ukraine’s parliament agreed with the president to impose martial
law for a month in ten of Ukraine’s most vulnerable regions.

Zenon Zawada: The view that
Poroshenko deliberately sent Ukrainian navy ships to the Kerch Strait with the
expectation of a disproportionate, aggressive Russian response is widely held
in Ukraine. We believe it’s quite likely Poroshenko sent the ships with the
expectation they’d be aggressively approached by the Russians, with the goal of
not only boosting poll ratings but more significantly, postponing the
elections, which didn’t happen. Part of why it was planned is because Ukraine
wasn’t violating any laws with this act, which absolved the Poroshenko
administration of global criticism for provoking the incident. Instead the
Ukrainians gained a UN resolution this week expressing further support.

We are confident that another similar incident will
draw an even fiercer Russian response, consisting of air strikes against
strategic military targets on the Ukrainian mainland. We believe it’s likely
that Poroshenko will use such an incident to either delay the elections, or
hold them under conditions of martial law. We view Poroshenko as desperate to
remain in power, and even more desperate in preventing Yulia Tymoshenko from
becoming president.

As for Poroshenko’s electoral support, it didn’t
improve much after the incident, despite Putin’s claims. He still remains far
behind Yulia Tymoshenko, hovering in second or third place with 10-14% support,
along with protest candidate and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to
recent polls.