Parliament to vote on martial law after Russia fires on, detains ships

Ukraine’s parliament will vote today on whether to
impose martial law after three Ukrainian navy ships were attacked and detained
by Russian Federal Security Service officers on Nov. 25 in their attempt to
cross the Kerch Strait towards the Azov Sea. The events began with Russian
officers ramming a Ukrainian tugboat (damaging its engine) that was
accompanying two artillery ships that ignored their orders to stop from
entering the strait, news reports said. They later fired at the ships to secure
their capture, including 23 sailors on board who surrendered without
resistance. Six sailors were reported by the Ukrainian Naval Forces to have
been injured from the day’s events, two seriously. Russian officials shut all
traffic through the Kerch Strait after the incident.

 

Russia engaged in an act of war after firing on and
capturing Ukraine’s navy ships, said National Security and Defense Council
Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov after an emergency meeting of the president’s war
cabinet. He called upon the council to endorse imposing martial law in Ukraine
for a period of two months. After the council endorsed martial law, President
Petro Poroshenko signed the corresponding order and submitted it for
parliament’s approval. The Verkhovna Rada will hold an extraordinary session at
4:00 p.m. local time today to decide.

 

In defending the actions of the Ukrainian navy ships,
authorities said they have the full legal right to cross international waters,
such as the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov, without being stopped by Russian
intelligence officers. In accordance with the UN convention on maritime rights,
“Ukraine’s military vessels enjoy maritime freedom in the Kerch Strait and Azov
Sea, therefore they can travel through the Kerch Strait in any time, under
conditions of maritime safety.” The Russian officers “crossed the line and
became aggressive,” according to a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry statement.

 

Russian officials accused their Ukrainian counterparts
of preparing and orchestrating the Kerch Strait incident, for which they
alleged to have “irrefutable evidence” of. “It is clear that their goal is to
create a conflict situation in the region,” Russia’s border service told the
Interfax news agency, alleging that the ships had entered illegally a
temporarily closed area of Russia’s territorial sea.

 

Zenon Zawada: For weeks, we had anticipated the possibility of such an armed conflict,
which was inevitable amid the mounting tensions in Kerch Strait. Given that Poroshenko
has been able to muster majorities in parliament for critical votes, we expect
that martial law will be imposed for a period of two months. Turchynov told
reporters that martial law can be lifted once conditions stabilize.

 

The biggest questions that arise immediately are
regarding elections and the expected IMF loan tranche.

 

Elections can’t occur under conditions of martial law,
nor can the start of the official election campaign season, which was scheduled
for Dec. 31. Imposing martial law for two months would have to postpone the
campaign, and possibly the elections themselves, by about a one month and a
half, at least. The president’s Russian-oriented opponents have already accused
him of provoking the Kerch Strait incident in order to postpone elections since
he was struggling in the polls.

 

Then there’s the IMF loan tranche, which we expected
would arrive this year after parliament approved the 2019 budget last week.
In October 2014, the IMF’s representative to Ukraine said that under conditions
of martial law, “no formal legal restrictions exist that would interfere” with
launching a loan program. So we expect that martial law would not interfere
with the expected IMF tranche. Nor will it change dramatically overall
conditions in Ukraine from current status, in which the armed conflict is
approaching its fifth year.

 

It’s worth considering for what ends Russia will use the
Kerch Strait incident. Aside from the standard pressure on Ukraine and
anti-Ukrainian propaganda amid the ongoing hybrid warfare, we believe this is
Russia opening a second low-level war front against Ukraine, the first being in
Donbas. We believe that similar incidents could begin to occur on a monthly
basis, with the goal of demoralizing the military and the public ahead of the
elections. Russia will continue to eradicate foreign interest in Ukraine’s
ports, likely offering security guarantees for those commercial ships traveling
to Russia’s ports in the Azov Sea.

 

In the view of Ukrainian diplomat Roman
Bezsmertniy, Russia could also use the incident to destabilize the Kherson and
Mykolayiv regions bordering Crimea. Russia is still working towards slicing
away Ukraine’s southeastern regions, he said. We believe Russia is trying to
destabilize the southeast, but it doesn’t have enough public support for a
separatist revolt, nor does it have resources for an expanded occupation.