Ukraine restricts ships from entering occupied Crimea, drawing Russian threats

Ukrainian law enforcement authorities arrested, or
introduced new restrictions on 15 foreign ships that illegally entered the
ports of the illegally annexed Crimea, Ukraine’s State Border Service reported
on Nov. 15. “If they enter into our maritime economic zone or enter Ukrainian
ports, we will use measures to restrict their further movement,” said that day
Oleh Slobodian, a border service spokesman. In response, Frants Klintsevich, a
member of the Russian Federation Council defense and security committee,
insisted that the ships entered Crimea legally and threatened “literally within
minutes” to close the Azov Sea to all ships with a Ukrainian flag. He accused
Ukraine of violating its 2003 Azov Sea agreement with Russia, to its own
detriment.

In response to the Russian threat, Iryna Lutsenko, the
president’s representative to Ukraine’s parliament, warned of a “harsh
reaction” if the Russian government follows through on its warning, namely
legal action and criminal complaints. “All of southern Ukraine is very
seriously dependent on the use of the Azov Sea,” she said. “Putin’s
activization indicates that Putin wants to split Ukraine and create a feeling
of instability in Ukraine in 2019.”

Zenon Zawada: We expected
Russia to escalate its ilitary aggression in Donbas to influence the 2019 vote, but now
it’s also escalating tensions in Ukraine’s maritime zone. All this pressure is intended to produce the needed results in the
2019 vote, or force the collapse of Ukrainian statehood.

The biggest threat from the escalating pressure in the
Black and Azov seas is that an armed conflict will erupt, which the Russian
government could use to justify an expanded military aggression in Ukraine.
This military aggression won’t be aimed at occupying lands, but to accuse the
Ukrainian government of reckless behavior and further buttress calls for peace
among Russian-oriented candidates.

Otherwise, we expect a pro-Western president will
emerge from the March elections. Although Russian-oriented forces will have a
boosted presence in parliament, we expect a pro-Western parliamentary majority to emerge as
well from the elections (scheduled for October). We expect Ukrainian statehood
to remain intact for years to come, owing to Western support that has been
secured by Ukraine’s leadership.