Duma warns Ukraine of "catastrophic consequences" from rising conflict

Russia’s parliament, the State Duma, issued among its
harshest statements against the Ukrainian government on Oct. 18, warning of “an
adequate response” to what it described as increasingly hostile military
actions that “will inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences.” The armed
conflict in Donbas is intensifying “with a growing military threat from the
Kyiv government,” said the statement posted on its website, warning Ukraine
against “a new large-scale military offensive in Donbas.” It criticized the
president’s campaign to establish a canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church as an
attempt to ruin “the true Orthodox Church” and “sanctify the continuation of
war against Russians and Russian-speakers.” The statement also criticized other
anti-Russian laws passed by parliament in recent months.

The Oct. 18 Duma statement also accused the Ukrainian
government of undermining the Minsk Accords and engaging in state terrorism
against the residents of Donbas. These actions have been backed by the Kyiv
government’s “Western sponsors and masterminds,” particularly the U.S. and
NATO, which are “directly pushing Ukraine towards aggression actions in giving
Ukraine arms and encouraging its anti-Russian policies.”

The Duma’s Oct. 18 statement reflects “the Russian
political elite’s inappropriate aggressiveness and cowardice,” said in response
Oleksandr Turchynov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council
of Ukraine. In a statement on the council’s website, he denied any
intensification of the armed conflict in Donbas, adding that Ukraine has been
committed to fulfilling its international obligations. He accused the Russian
Duma MPs of threatening Ukraine’s citizens, who are not intimidated.

Zenon Zawada: We are
confident that Ukraine’s Armed Forces will not attempt a military offensive for
at least the next year, but more likely never. The Ukrainian government has too
much to lose from a military offensive, which would go against the strategy of
its Western partners. President Poroshenko also has too much to lose,
considering he has solid chances of being re-elected. For as long as Poroshenko
remains president (including after his possible re-election), we are confident
he will rely fully on the Western powers, which will maintain their current
strategy of exhausting Russia through economic sanctions, as well as exhausting
Russian state finances with a military buildup in Ukraine.

As for the Minsk Accords, the Russian side has shown
itself to bear greater responsibility for undermining them after it supported
the organization of elections in Donbas for Nov. 11, in violation of the
agreement. Russia has also ignored Ukrainian efforts in recent months to
organize prisoner exchanges, according to Ukrainian diplomats attending the
Trilateral Contact Group meetings in Minsk.

We have been reporting on the strong potential for
expanded Russian military aggression in Ukraine in 2019, and this statement
merely confirms our view. The confluence of several simultaneous geopolitical
developments could provide the Russian government with the pretext and
narratives it’s seeking to expand aggression: the militarization of the Azov
Sea, the growing presence of U.S. military and hardware in Ukraine, the attempt
to establish a canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church (at the expense of the
Moscow-led church) and potential for chaos surrounding the 2019 presidential
and parliamentary elections.

Such statements set the stage for expanded Russian
aggression by creating a virtual reality, that exists in the Russian-controlled
mass media and its Kremlin-oriented narratives, that doesn’t exist on the
ground. So if a new military conflict does erupt, the Russian government would
refer to the warning issued on Oct. 18, despite its claims not being based on
the actual situation.