Russia relocating two military ships to Azov Sea, drawing Ukrainian warnings

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has begun
relocating two military ships to its border patrol along its Azov Sea
coastline, the mil.in.ua news site reported on Oct. 16. Both ships were
observed on Oct. 11 traveling from the Nizhniy Novgorod region towards the
Barents Sea. “It’s expected that both ships will reach the Azov Sea after Oct.
20,” the news site said, unable to confirm the port they will be stationed at.
The report noted that Russia relocated in May two artillery ships that were
positioned in the port of Kerch, near the entrance to the Azov Sea, on the
occupied Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine’s naval forces are ready to use force against
Russia in the event of military aggravation in the Black and Azov seas, Admiral
Ihor Voronchenko, the commander of Ukraine’s naval forces, told the BBC in an
interview published on Oct. 16. “If they pursue a harsh destabilization, we
will respond adequately: escort our ships and position ourselves in those those
regions where fishing or other industry takes place,” he said. “There won’t be
a second Crimea. The situation won’t repeat itself,” he added.

Russia is intensifying its military presence in the
Azov Sea region and developing its military infrastructure along the Ukrainian
border, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr
Turchynov told Rasa Jukneviciene, the president of the NATO parliamentary
assembly, at an Oct. 16 meeting in Kyiv. “Russia is using its entire hybrid war
arsenal against Ukraine, viewing our state as a testing ground for technologies
that will be later used against Europe and the U.S.,” Turchynov said. He also
criticized European leaders for supporting the development of the NordStream 2
natural gas pipeline, which “supports the strategic economic interests of
Russia and exposes Europe’s energy complex to danger.”

Zenon Zawada: While Ukraine won’t have a second Crimea, as the admiral insisted,
Ukraine could end up having another Georgia. We believe the intensifying
militarization of the Azov Sea region is setting the stage for a possible
repeat of an incident similar to the Roki Tunnel in 2008 on Georgia’s border
with South Ossetia, when a small armed conflict erupted into warfare. For
example, frequent stoppages of ships in the Azov Sea by Russian border officers
have the potential to create a small conflict that can escalate into warfare.
An armed conflict would also erupt if Russian border ships use excessive force
in escorting private trade vessels, or Ukrainian military vessels, in the Azov
Sea, as they have been doing in recent months (and Ukrainian ships could start
to do themselves, as the admiral indicated).