PACE fails to change sanctions rules for Russia

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) failed at its Oct. 9 session to approve amendments to sanctions rules
that would have enabled the Russian delegation to return to its activity,
reported the eurointegration.com.ua news site. The measures earned 99 votes in
support out of 216 votes needed. Debates were postponed until January, which is
the earliest that another vote can occur.

Russia has yet to submit its new proposals for a UN
peacekeeping in Donbas, U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker said in an
Oct. 7 interview with the hromadske.dn.ua news site. “I am in correspondence
with (Russian presidential advisor Vladislav) Surkov about the contents of this
meeting,” he said. “The Russians don’t agree with the proposals we submitted,
but themselves have yet to propose any options.”

Russia has militarized the Crimean peninsula to
unprecedented levels, having chosen to widen and intensify its aggression
campaign, Ukrainian Representative to the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko told the UN on
Oct. 9. “The occupation and subsequent militarization of Crimea has
long-reaching consequences for the security of not only the Black Sea region,
but in all of southern Europe, as well as the North Africa and Middle East
regions.”

Zenon Zawada: Relations between
Russia and the West are as poor as ever, since the Russian occupation of
Ukraine began in 2014. It’s now all but certain that there will be no peace
agreement to end fighting in Donbas in the next year, nor will there be a UN
peacekeeping mission.

With elections in Donbas scheduled for Nov. 11 in
violation of the Minsk Accords, we expect negotiations of the Normandy Four and
Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk will be postponed until 2020, at the earliest.
A few meetings might occur, but with no breakthroughs.

We expect Russian President Putin will manipulate the
Russian campaign of aggression against Ukraine, including the military
offensive in Donbas, throughout the next year to influence the elections to
bring a strong Russian-oriented force to parliament. We believe Russia will
also be looking for any pretext of civil unrest to expand military aggression
in Ukraine.