Russia strategy in Ukraine is to outlast Western pressure, insider says

The Russian strategy in Donbas and Crimea is to
outlast the West’s diplomatic pressure and sanctions, Russian political
scientist Sergei Markov told the Crimea Donuzlav 2018 youth camp in occupied
Crimea on Aug. 5, according to Kremlin-aligned media. Western nations are
growing increasingly exhausted in their conflict with Russia over Ukraine,
which is not vitally important for them, said Markov, who has close ties to the
Kremlin.

“Our task is to withstand the hit from sanctions,
understanding that we won’t win in this hybrid war with the Europeans and
Americans. But we don’t have to win,” Markov said. He added, “We hope that they
will get tired from this war, which is also expensive for them, will back down
from us finally, will take care of their own problems and we will be able to
return to the trajectory of normal development.”

Russia shouldn’t back down from its interests in
Ukraine, which will only make things worse, Markov said. “Nothing more can be
taken and there is nowhere to retreat,” he said. “That’s how Ukraine was
conquered by the enemies of Russia. We won’t retreat anymore. We will boost our
resources. The West is not in ideal condition. I have the feeling that in some
time it will get tired of this struggle and then we will improve relations.”

Zenon Zawada: With this
speech to the youth camp, Markov succinctly summarizes Russia’s plans for its
military aggression in Ukraine. We believed the West could begin to relax
sanctions against Russia as early as this year, but the election of Emmanuel
Macron in 2017 has delayed that possibility until 2022, the next presidential
elections in France.

With populist-nationalist forces having scored
victories in Great Britain (with Brexit) and Italy (this year), the last
strongholds of pressure against Russia in the EU are France and Germany. The
nationalists remain a threat in France, and the nationalists in Germany already
have the second-most popular party, according to some polls.

So if the West is to gain Russia’s surrender in
Ukraine, we believe it must do so by 2022. By then, populist-nationalist forces
in France and Germany will gain even more influence than they have now. It’s
unclear whether the regime of Russian President Putin will hold its economy
together until this time, but it’s obvious from Markov’s comments it will try.
We can expect the war in Donbas to drag on for at least two more years, but
probably longer.