Ukraine elections pose risks to statehood, experts warn

The election campaign season beginning September will
be the most dangerous period in all of Ukraine’s 27 year of independence,
Heorhiy Tuka, the deputy minister for the temporary occupied territories, told
the apostrophe.ua news site in an interview published on Aug. 4. Ukrainian
authorities were aware of this as early as November 2017, when Tuka
participated in preparing a classified report warning of serious problems
beginning this fall.

Russia will have enhanced ability to intensify its
aggression against Ukrane after the public relations gains from hosting the
WorldCup football tournament, Tuka said. At the same time,
populist-nationalists are taking power in European countries, which also works
in the Kremlin’s favor, he said. “We have no doubt that Russia will work
actively in its interests, using our internal conflicts and weaknesses to
destabilize the situation in the country,” he said.

Every Ukrainian presidential election has led to a
catastrophe for Ukrainian statehood, political pundit Vitaly Portnikov told the
apostrophe.ua news site in an interview published on Aug. 5. Ukraine will
continue to be mired in political chaos until the constitution is amended to a
parliamentary republic and presidential elections are canceled, which won’t
happen, Portnikov said. Therefore, political chaos in Ukraine will continue
until at least 2024, he said.

Zenon Zawada: We agree
with Tuka’s and Portnikov’s assessments. We can already say that the March
presidential election results will not have the public’s confidence and will be
fiercely contested by the competitors, largely because Poroshenko has violated
the public trust consistently throughout his presidency. This lack of trust
will be a powder keg for protests and potential violence, which the Russian government
will be eager to exploit.

To avoid election-related chaos, MP Viktoria Siumar
has suggested Poroshenko not compete at all. In our view, this would make him
an independent arbiter and improve the public’s trust in the results. Yet we are
confident Poroshenko will compete. We agree with Portnikov’s suggestion of
amending the Constitution to create a parliamentary republic (elections are
scheduled for October 2019) with a figurehead president to enhance national
stability, and we agree that Ukraine’s political elite isn’t interested in
doing so.