Trump and Putin meet amid high tension and low expectations

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin meet in Helsinki, Finland today. Reuters reports that officials on both sides are downplaying any possibility of a breakthrough in relations, and quotes national security advisor John Bolton as saying that the US would not be expecting “deliverables”. Likewise, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov has stated that success from their side would be the reopening of communications between the countries.

The meeting comes as U.S. and Partnership for Peace allies from 17 countries hold the Sea Breeze 2018 military exercises in Odesa and Mykolayiv oblasts. Moreover, the two leaders meet just days after the indictment in the U.S. of 12 Russian GRU officers for attempting to manipulate the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Nevertheless, despite the military and legal pressure, the two men will meet for a tête-à-tête session with translators only, which fuels concerns about Trump’s position on Ukraine-related issues.

James Hydzik: The meeting, which is being watched with trepidation among Ukrainians wondering what Trump’s “we’ll see” comment regarding Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea and SE Donbas will bring, is both more and less dangerous than most observers posit. It is less so, primarily because the institutional backlash in the U.S. to any statement by Trump favoring Russian sovereignty or a sphere of influence would make it extremely unlikely that formal measures would be taken to act upon those comments. However, emboldening the Kremlin with shared sentiment, while unlikely to be the impetus for further military action in Donbas in the immediate future, will increase the chances of further attempts to destabilize Ukraine ahead of the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections.