Ukraine president, his party perform poorly in latest poll
26 June 2018
Pro-Western populist Yulia Tymoshenko remains the most
popular candidate for president, with 22.8% support among decided voters,
according to a poll conducted this month by the Kyiv International Institute of
Sociology. She is followed by pro-Western reformer Anatoliy Grytsenko (16%),
agrarian populist Oleh Lyashko (13.2%), Russian-oriented Yuriy Boyko (10.6%)
and President Petro Poroshenko (10.5%). The presidential vote is scheduled for
March 2019.
For the parliamentary vote (scheduled for October
2019), 21.6% of decided voters will cast their ballot for Tymoshenko’s
Fatherland party, 15.9% for Grytsenko’s Civic Position, 11.4% for Boyko’s
Opposition Bloc, 11.1% for Lyashko’s Radical Party, 10.5% for the pro-Russian
For Life party and 7.9% for the Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc.
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, or 83.7%, are
dissatisfied with the direction the country is heading, according to the poll.
At the same time, 43.7% support EU integration and 41.1% support integration
into NATO. The poll, financed by Ukrainian and Western sources, conducted
interviews with 2,005 respondents between June 7 and 21.
Zenon Zawada: This poll
confirms the president’s collapse in public support, which is buttressed by the
widely held view that the country is headed in the wrong direction. For
Poroshenko to have a fighting chance in the March presidential vote, he will
need to poll consistently at least among the top three. Otherwise, he can’t
make a legitimate case for qualifying for the second-round runoff.
In our view, Poroshenko has exhausted his resources
and talents as president and is entering lame duck status. It’s unlikely that
modest pension and minimum wage increases can boost his support. And using law
enforcement to persecute his outperforming rivals, which has been alleged in
recent months, will only backfire and worsen his standing even further. All the
momentum currently is with Tymoshenko and Grytsenko. Tymoshenko even slightly
improved her positions, likely owing to the mid-June launch of her
“Ukraine’s New Course” campaign program.
