Electoral support for Putin among Russians lowest since 2013, poll says

Electoral support for Russian President Vladimir Putin
among Russians has fallen to its lowest level since 2013 amid rising gasoline
prices and recently announced plans to raise the pension age and value-added
tax, according to the latest weekly poll conducted by the Public Opinion Fund.
About 54% of Russians would vote for Putin as of June 17, compared to 62% the
prior week and 64% at the end of May. Public approval of Putin’s activity as
president was at 72% as of June 17, compared to 77% as of June 10.

Western leaders need to comprehend that their
sanctions are incompatible with their economic interests in Russia in light of
how the current conflict is unfolding, Yuriy Smelianskiy, the board chairman of
the Black Sea Research Institute, wrote in an article published on June 23 the
dt.ua news site. The Russian threat “will be impossible to liquidate without
solidary actions of the global community ‘to re-export Russian aggression’ onto
its own territory, at minimum using the instruments of economic war,” he wrote.
Such instruments include a “catastrophic lack” of consumer goods, travel
restrictions, and prohibitions on participating in international sports
activities.

Zenon Zawada: Proposals
to raise the pension age and value-added tax confirm that Western-imposed
sanctions are having the desired effect of hurting the Russian economy. The
U.S. strategy of accelerating the arms race against Russia in Ukraine – in
order to force more Russian expenditures on its Donbas aggression – could also
be starting to produce the desired results. So while many Ukrainians are
dissatisfied with Western pressure, they can’t deny that some results are being
achieved. The current trend indicates that Putin’s boost in public support from
his Crimean annexation is beginning to erode as Russians are beginning to feel
the consequences.

We believe the West needs to force Russia out of
Ukraine, in one way or another, no later than 2022. By that time, nationalist
forces are likely to create more majorities in European parliaments and start
relaxing sanctions against Russia. By that time, Russia could very well find a
window of political destabilization (likely by its own making) to impose its
own “solution” in Ukraine. Also by that time, Ukraine’s economy will
be further weakened by the ongoing emigration of workers, a lack of structural
reforms and continued deterioration of the nation’s infrastructure.

We agree with the view that the West’s current
measures are not enough to force Russia out of Ukraine in the next four years,
particularly in light of the current World Cup football tournament and the
current construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Even if the Russian
economy was to begin to collapse from Western pressure, we believe Putin would
fend off the scenario by resorting to expanded military aggression, possibly on
a continental scale.