New Italy PM pledges Russia sanctions review

Newly elected
Italian PM Giuseppe Conte pledged to promote a review of EU sanctions against
Russia in his first speech following his government’s confirmation by the
senate on June 5, as reported by the independent.co.uk news site. The next day,
Italy’s lower parliamentary chamber voted to approve the Cabinet of Ministers
formed by the populist Five Star Movement and the nationalist Liga party. Both
parties have called for ending EU sanctions against Russia, a position that was
reiterated by Conte in his first speech as prime minister. He said he would
promote a review of sanctions in meetings with other EU leaders. “We will
promote a revising of sanctions, starting with those that demean Russian civil
society,” he said addressing senators.

Zenon Zawada: As we said upon Trump’s election in
November 2016, the populist-nationalist wave in the West could lead to the
first EU sanctions against Russia being relaxed as early as 2017. That didn’t
happen as the French were able to prevent the nationalists from taking the
presidency last year. But now populist-nationalists have taken control of the
government of the EU’s third-largest economy in Italy.

We expect the
populist-nationalist tide to continue in the EU for years to come, gradually
increasing pressure to relax sanctions. The Swedish nationalists are about to
make big gains in their parliamentary elections in September. Nationalists are
making gains in Germany, which could lead to sanctions being relaxed by the
time of the next round of elections in about four years.

If not for the firm U.S. commitment to its own sanctions, Russian
President Putin would have planned to endure the current sanctions for another
election cycle with the anticipation of having them relaxed. Instead he is
still considering an expanded war, possibly on a continental scale, as one of
his options because of the toll the sanctions are taking on his economy. It’s
still unclear whether he can resist the sanctions for another four years.