Tymoshenko leading polls in competitive 2019 elections

Former political prisoner Yulia Tymoshenko and her
Fatherland party are leading in what’s shaping up to be an intensely
competitive 2019 election campaign, according to poll results released on May
7. Of decided voters, 16.1% will cast their ballot for former PM Tymoshenko,
12.7% for former Defense Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko, 12.2% for populist Oleg
Liashko and 12.2% for President Poroshenko in the presidential elections
scheduled for March 2019. Though they haven’t officially declared their
candidacies, comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy has 10.8% support and rock star
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk has 9.6%, according to the poll. Meanwhile, 29.3% of all
respondents have not yet decided.

Poroshenko will lose in a second-round runoff against
all his leading rivals, the poll also revealed. Grytsenko will win in a runoff
against all his leading rivals. Vakarchuk and Zelenskiy would defeat most of
the leading politicians in a runoff, including Tymoshenko.

Eight parties could qualify for parliament in
elections scheduled for October 2019, including two Russian-oriented parties
that would gain 18.6% of the vote (compared to 64.2% for pro-EU parties).
Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party has 14.4% support, ahead of Grytsenko’s Civic
Position (11.5%), Liashko’s Radical Party (11.4%) and Poroshenko’s Solidary
party (9.9%). The poll was conducted between April 5 and 19 of 2,004
respondents by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Zenon Zawada: More than anything, this poll reveals that the electoral field is wide
open and no one competitor has an advantage over others, with the possible
exception of President Poroshenko and his access to state resources. Even
Tymoshenko’s lead is capable of being overcome. This poll also confirms that
voters are looking for change from the course set by Poroshenko, whose ratings
collapse has been confirmed by a third recent poll. But just as any candidate
has the chance to win, President Poroshenko can mobilize his massive resources
to rebound from his slump as well.