Second elections poll confirms Poroshenko ratings collapse

A second elections poll, released on Apr. 26, has
confirmed that public support for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his
Solidarity party has collapsed since the start of the year. It also confirmed
Yulia Tymoshenko as the leading presidential candidate, and her populist
Fatherland party as the leading political force. As many as eight parties – two
of which are Russian-oriented – stand to qualify for parliament in next year’s
vote, the poll revealed. The results of the Rating Sociological Group poll
reflected those trends revealed by an elections poll conducted by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology that was released on March 19.

Among those who will participate in the March
presidential vote and are decided, 14.2% support former Prime Minister and
political prisoner Yulia Tymoshenko, 10.9% support pro-EU former Defense
Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko, 9.4% support Russian-oriented natural gas trader
Yuriy Boyko and only 9.3% support President Poroshenko. More than 21% of those
intending to vote are undecided.

Among decided voters planning to vote in the October
parliamentary elections, 15.3% support Fatherland, while the Grytsenko’s Civic
Position has 9.7% support, Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc has 9.6%, the
yet-to-be-registered People’s Servant party has 9.0%, Russian-oriented For Life
has 8.2%, the populist Radical Party has 8.0%, Poroshenko’s Solidarity party
has 7.6% and the pro-EU Self-Reliance party has 5.2%. More than 18% of those
intending to vote are undecided.

The poll was conducted by the Ratings Sociological
Group between Apr. 10 and 22 of 6,000 respondents.

Zenon Zawada: Poroshenko
is in trouble and he needs a new political strategy to pull himself out of this
ratings collapse. Unfortunately, his recent campaign to get canonical
recognition of the Ukrainian Orthodox church (which began on Apr. 17, during
the time this poll was conducted) won’t do the trick as voter concerns are far
more pragmatic. Workers want better wages, while entrepreneurs want functioning
courts and more favorable tax conditions. Tymoshenko has understood this, which
is why she has pulled out in front of the pack.

We can’t help but notice that Poroshenko’s ratings
collapse began weeks after the forced deportation of Mikheil Saakashvili, which
was conducted outside the courts and therefore widely criticized. Public trust
in Poroshenko had already been low, but this tactic of suppressing dissent –
which put an end to the downtown protests – might have come at a price too
high.

It’s also worth noting that the March KIIS poll
reported 37% of undecided voters, whereas this poll puts them at about half
that amount. We expect a vicious campaign season as the Presidential
Administration tries to cast doubt on Tymoshenko’s abilities before the public.