Shock poll: Poroshenko election ratings collapsing

The election ratings of Ukrainian President Poroshenko
are collapsing, according to poll results released on March 19 by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology. Of decided voters planning to vote in the
March 2019 presidential elections, 24.6% said they will vote for pro-EU
populist Yulia Tymoshenko, 15.5% for pro-EU populist Oleh Liashko, 12.5% for
pro-EU reformer Anatoliy Grytsenko, and only 9.8% for Poroshenko. His support
has steadily collapsed from 18.3% in September and 16.9% in December.

Poroshenko’s political party is faring even worse,
according to the same poll. Of decided voters planning to vote in the October
2019 parliamentary elections, 22.5% said they will vote for Tymoshenko’s
Fatherland party, 13.7% for Liashko’s Radical Party, 12.4% for the
Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc, 10.3% for the Russian-oriented For Life
party, 9.4% for Grytsenko’s Civic Position and only 6.6% for Poroshenko’s
Solidarity party. It had 13.4% support in December.

The poll was conducted of 2,043 respondents between
Feb. 5 and 21 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), an
independent firm that has performed polls for various governments, businesses
and international clients, including IFIs.

Zenon Zawada: The main
factor that we can identify in Poroshenko’s ratings collapse in the last six
months is rising inflation, which surged 13.7% last year (nonetheless lower
than previous years). Consumer inflation accelerated in the last months of the
last year, reaching 14% yoy in January and February. The impact of rising
gasoline prices has been particularly harsh. The average Ukrainian doesn’t seem
as interested in structural reforms anymore as he is in immediate government
help to alleviate his poor economic standing. The forced deportation of protest
leader Mikheil Saakashvili may have also harmed Poroshenko’s ratings.

Whether or not Poroshenko’s collapse will be reflected
in other polls remains to be seen, though this KIIS poll is well-regarded. What
is certain is that the trend favors Ukraine’s two leading populist forces –
Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party and Liashko’s Radical Party. Both politicians
represent populism in its purest form, with constant calls for higher wages and
pensions, as well as expanded use of state subsidies. They are just as critical
of the IMF as they are of Russia. Needless to say, Ukraine’s Western lending
partners will be alarmed by these numbers.

With such weak poll figures, Poroshenko won’t even be
able to rely on administrative resources and light fraud that we identified in
yesterday’s analysis that could help him win. His saving grace is that nearly
40% of potential voters are undecided, according to the same poll. In theory,
Poroshenko still has time to turn his ratings around with radically populist
measures, such as salary hikes, though he and his party have shown limited
skill in that sphere. And they are limited in their populist measures by their
obligations to international lenders.

The potential still remains for the dark horse
candidacy of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, the intellectual rock star currently
studying at Stanford University. However, he has yet to make up his mind about
his candidacy and is running out of time to conduct a serious campaign. We see
him as a direct proxy for IMF and U.S. interests in Ukraine.