Ukraine ruling elites yet to decide on election strategy, report says

Ukraine’s ruling elites have yet to agree on a
strategy approaching the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections,
according to a report published on March 15 on the pravda.com.ua news site that
cites anonymous sources involved in the negotiations. They have yet to agree on
a scheme to consolidate under a single party, and they have yet to decide on
whether to hold early parliamentary elections so that they occur this year,
ahead of the presidential vote scheduled for March 2019. (Parliamentary
elections are scheduled for October 2019).

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who will influence the
elections greatly with his control of the national police force, has yet to
decide on whether he will align with the president for the elections or with
his leading challenger, Yulia Tymoshenko, with whom he has been in talks, the
news report said. Avakov has made clear he won’t align with Poroshenko if an
early parliamentary vote is held this year, the report said. Poroshenko has
reportedly told the elites that he won’t call early parliamentary elections.

Zenon Zawada: We believe Poroshenko won’t call early parliamentary elections this
year because they could backfire in many ways. The less risky path is to
compete in March 2019 with full control of law enforcement, which would be
achieved with an alliance with Avakov and his People’s Front party.  We
believe the president will be allowed to get away with much abuse of government
resources and light forms of fraud to manipulate the vote – by both Western and
Ukrainian elites – in light of the high geopolitical risks and threats to
global stability posed by a Tymoshenko presidency. Ukrainian elites will fully
support Poroshenko against Tymoshenko, while Western authorities like the
Financial Times have begun to express worries about her becoming president.