High danger of Russian interference in Ukraine elections, president says

The danger is “extremely high” that the Russian government
will interfere with Ukraine’s elections scheduled for next year, Ukrainian
President Poroshenko said in a March 1 interview with the Financial Times that
was published on March 6. “They use a huge army of provocateurs and agents in
the social media,” he said. “And that’s why I do things like stop Russian
television broadcasting and stop the Russian social media because they use it
for the propaganda war,” he said. The Ukrainian government has taken measures
to protect the public against Russian-produced fake news, and continues to work
closely with Western law enforcement, he said.

Poroshenko said he hasn’t decided whether he will
participate in the elections. He acknowledged that he suffers from low approval
ratings, as does the Cabinet and parliament. He also acknowledged that it’s
dangerous that 40-50% of the people are undecided in who they will vote for,
and that poses a danger of populists coming to power. “But the only thing I can
guarantee is we will have an absolutely free and fair election,” he said.
Presidential elections are scheduled for March 2019, while parliamentary
elections are set for October 2019.

Zenon Zawada: Russia is
certain to be involved in the elections considering that two Russian-oriented
parties (the Opposition Bloc and For Life) are not only competing, but
projected to earn solid results by polls. Both parties are led by politicians
with close ties to their Russian counterparts, and therefore Russian political
technologists.  And of course, there’s the factor of Russian agents
working in various Ukrainian offices. This creates high potential for chaotic
elections.

However, we believe Poroshenko and his entourage see
the pro-Western opposition as a bigger threat than the Russian-oriented
politicians. That’s especially the case considering that his longtime rival,
Yulia Tymoshenko, is not only ahead in the polls to become president, but even
widening her lead, according to some polls. Poroshenko has guaranteed fair
elections, but his political team has already engaged in unfair tactics against
opponents, including Tymoshenko’s party,
which are likely to intensify. This is another potential for chaos.

It’s particularly revealing that the Financial
Times posed questions regarding the threat that “the next government will have
a very different composition and not be dominated by reformers.” It also asked
about Poroshenko’s ability to “turn things around in terms of your own rating.”
This indicates that the Western establishment is worried about a Tymoshenko
presidency, a concern that is shared among Ukraine’s elites and professionals.
As we have said, the elections are Poroshenko’s to lose, considering all the
potential support he could muster. Considering the weak opposition, he simply
lacks the few policy lynchpins to convince enough voters to support him.