Poroshenko says he’s not discussing early parliamentary elections

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said he’s not discussing
dismissing parliament or early elections with anyone. “I am satisfied with the
pace demonstrated in the last session in regards to the cooperation between the
coalition, parliament and government,” he said during a Feb. 28 press
conference.

Zenon Zawada: Despite his
claims to the contrary, we are confident that Poroshenko has been considering
early parliamentary elections (currently scheduled for October 2019) and
discussing the possibility, if not with his leading opponent Yulia Tymoshenko
(as had been reported), then with
his own advisers. They would be advantageous politically because he would be
able to guarantee for himself and his entourage an influential parliamentary
faction in case he decides that he can’t win the presidential elections in
March 2019. If he takes the risk of running for re-election and loses, he could
very well fail to gain any parliamentary faction in the October vote.

Despite the risk of losing everything, we believe
Poroshenko will move forward with a re-election campaign. Not only does he need
to prevent a Tymoshenko presidency (to prevent her possible revenge against
him), but he also would be representing the interests of Ukraine’s entire
oligarchy in prevening her from coming to power. She is viewed as a
destabilizing factor not only among Ukraine’s elites, but also among Ukraine’s
Western partners (though they will not say it publicly).

The main positive we see from early elections (if they
occur) is that they are a better scenario for producing political stability in
the country amid curent Russian aggression. They provide Poroshenko with a dignified
exit from the presidential post, thereby avoiding a nasty and potentially
destabilizing presidential contest with Tymoshenko. Moreover, pro-Western
opposition forces could unite around Tymoshenko, just as they had supported
Mikheil Saakashvili following his deportation.

As we’ve stated, we believe the presidential election
is Poroshenko’s to lose. Recent polls showing a gradually improving
lead for Tymoshenko creates greater risk for that scenario and raises the
chances for a chaotic election. However, this scenario
is less risky for Ukraine’s
mid- to long-term stability than a
Tymoshenko presidency for five years.