Poroshenko, Tymoshenko met to possibly discuss early elections

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held a meeting in
early February with Yulia Tymoshenko, his leading challenger for the
presidency, the strana.ua news site reported on Feb. 19, citing several
anonymous sources. The president is considering a plan to hold the
parliamentary election in August this year (instead of October 2019, as it’s
currently planned), said an anonymous source “close to the leadership” of the
Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc.

The president may have proposed a deal with Tymoshenko
– currently being discussed in the party leadership – in which his party forms
a coalition government with her, in exchange for her agreeing not to compete in
the presidential election, scheduled for March 2019, the source said. That way,
he would support her in becoming prime minister as her party is on course to
gain the strongest result. The meeting occurred on Feb. 5, according to a
source in the Presidential Administration.

Members of Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party confirmed
that a meeting occurred but declined to say what was discussed, strana.ua
reported. The news site has also said that the Poroshenko Administration’s
relations with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman have become strained, which is
why the president is willing to consider working with Tymoshenko.

Zenon Zawada: While we
can’t confirm whether the meeting took place, we doubt that Tymoshenko will
reach any such agreement on early elections with Poroshenko. We can cite
several reasons, the first being that Tymoshenko is leading in the polls to
become president and would be sacrificing perhaps her last chance to gain the
top post. Secondly, Tymoshenko has had a long, vicious rivalry with Poroshenko
– going back more than a decade – and doesn’t trust him. He is likely to force
her out as prime minister if she steps out of line. Thirdly, she once agreed to
such a backroom political deal with her political foes in 2009, only to be
humiliated when they backed out. She is unlikely to repeat the same mistake.

This report is very positive, however, in that it
indicates that Poroshenko is aware of his unpopularity, as well as the prospect
that he will be unseated as president in the elections next year. Many of his
actions in recent months created the impression that he’s detached from
reality, particularly the public’s antipathy towards him.

If he truly proposed a deal to Tymoshenko, it means
that he will be willing to transfer power to his successor without a vicious
struggle. But we still hold the view that he deeply fears the possibility of
his most intense rival succeeding him and her possibly allowing prosecutors to
investigate him. And we still believe the elections could get chaotic.