Russian-backed rebels get armaments, intensify attacks in Donbas

Russian-backed fighters in Donbas have positioned
seven new surface-to-air missile systems on Feb. 5 and four new Grad rapid-fire
missile launchers on Feb. 6 on the outskirts of Donetsk in violation of the
Minsk Accords, the OSCE special monitoring mission reported on Feb. 7. It also
observed ten tanks and six howitzer systems. On Feb. 7, the Russian-backed
fighters fired on all tangents using mortars, tanks and grenade launchers,
reported the headquarters of the Anti-Terrorist Operation. It also reported that
Ukraine’s Armed Forces transferred the bodies of two dead fighters from Russia
to the terrorists.

The Russian government is preparing for large-scale
warfare, former paramilitary leader and current MP Dmytro Yarosh in an interview
published on Feb. 7, confirming the observations of Western military experts.
“We see that in the concentration of assault formations along the entire
perimeter of Ukraine and not only. Along the borders of the Baltic states and
Finland,” he said. “That’s why the West should respond to these things not only
with sanctions, but with heavier steps.” 

Zenon Zawada: As we expected, Russia will
be escalating warfare through 2018 ahead of the elections next year. It’s a
widespread view that the Russian leadership is exhausted by the war and is
looking for a way out in its talks with U.S. special envoy Kurt Volker. But the
evidence on the ground indicates large-scale war is still an option on the table
for Russian President Putin in his quest to regain control of the territory of
Ukraine.

We believe Putin could resort to military strikes
on Ukraine during next year’s election season, especially if controversy mires
the March 2019 presidential vote and a winner can’t be agreed upon. Russia
could take advantage of the chaos to impose its own order in Ukraine. However,
the most likely outcome at this point is that Poroshenko is re-elected with
some protests, but not enough to challenge the result.