Poll reveals solid support for Russian-oriented parties in Ukraine

More than a third of Ukrainian voters, or 39% of those
planning to vote, have yet to decide which party they will support, according
to poll results released on Jan. 31. If parliamentary elections were held now,
the pro-EU populist Fatherland party would earn 10% of votes, the
Russian-oriented For Life party would have 7%, the Russian-oriented Opposition
Bloc would have 7%, the president’s Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc would have 6%
and the pro-EU, reformist Civic Position would have 5%. Pro-EU parties would
have 21% support, while Russian-oriented parties would have 14%.

Only 14% of Ukrainians approve of the performance of
President Poroshenko, while 77% disapprove. The public figures that have the
most favorable ratings are former Defense Minister and Civic Position Party
Head Anatoliy Grytsenko and intellectual rock star Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, who is
currently studying at Stanford University in California and is considering a
presidential candidacy.

The poll, involving 2,400 respondents throughout
Ukraine between Nov. 15 and Dec. 15, was conducted by the GfK Ukraine polling
firm at the request of the International Republican Institute with financing
from USAID.

Zenon Zawada: These
figures reveal how poorly Ukraine’s political system reflects the trust and
concerns of the public, which sees few electoral options to choose from. It’s
also the latest poll to confirm relatively strong support for Russian-oriented
parties, which we believe have a strong potential to form the opposition in the
next parliament.

It was particularly revealing that in two Russophile
cities – Mykolayiv is the ninth-largest and Mariupol is Ukraine’s tenth-largest
– the Russian-oriented parties have an overwhelming edge. Mariupol is near the
separation line with the Donbas war zone and doesn’t support any pro-EU party,
while Mykolayiv residents prefer the Russian-oriented parties at a 4-to-1
margin. The Fatherland party would earn 5%, compared to 11% for For Life and
10% for the Opposition Bloc.

We are confident that the Kremlin will offer these
two parties strong backing in its mass media, and possibly other means, with
the goal of creating a strong Russian presence in the next parliament that it
will use to convince the Europeans to begin relaxing sanctions, or even
canceling them.