PACE should remove sanctions against Russia by 2019, Jagland says

Sanctions against the Russian Federation should be
removed in order to restore its participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of
the Council of Europe (PACE) by the time of the 2019 summit, Secretary General
Thorbjorn Jagland said in a Jan. 22 address to the assembly. PACE’s rules
should be amended in order to “bring onboard” all its member-states, he said,
alluding to the sanctions against Russia. “Harmonizing the organization’s rules
is a part of our work,” he said. “Achieving this would be the best path to
commemorating 70 years of the organization’s founding.” The term
“harmonization” refers to removing sanctions from the Russian delegation that
were imposed for the illegal annexation of Crimea and military aggression in
Donbas, reported the eurointegration.com.ua news site. “Europe should not be
divided again. A new division would harm everyone.” Jagland said. He elaborated
that Russia can be readmitted based on not having violated PACE’s key
priorities forbidding the death penalty, torture, forced labor and slavery.

The first meeting will occur this evening of a PACE ad
hoc committee to discuss the possibility of Russia returning to the
organization, said PACE President Stella Kyriakides, as reported by the
eurointegration.com.ua news site. Russian State Duma Deputy Chairman Pyotr
Tolstoy and Federation Council International Affairs Committee Head Konstantin
Kosachev will arrive in Strasbourg for the meeting, the report said.

Kurt Volker, the U.S .special envoy to Ukraine, will
meet with his Russian counterpart, Russian presidential adviser Vladislav
Surkov, in Dubai on Thursday to discuss the military conflict in the Donbas
region of eastern Ukraine, among other topics. U.S. and European diplomats
remain skeptical that Russian President Putin will make a deal, particularly
ahead of the country’s March presidential election, the ft.com. news site
reported. “But Thursday’s meetings are important to sound out Russian thinking
and willingness to negotiate, either now or after the election,” the report
said, citing U.S. officials. Volker will visit Ukraine and the Donbas conflict
zone ahead of the meeting.

Zenon Zawada: As we’ve stated we believe
Russia’s return to PACE would be a game-changer that would set the precedent
for other European legislatures and politicians to relax or remove sanctions.
Amid increasing pressure from business groups, these legislators – an
increasing number of which represent Russian-aligned forces – are looking for
justifications to begin normalizing relations, a trend that the Russians are
counting on to win this conflict. At the same Jan. 22 PACE session, the head of
Ukraine’s delegation, Volodymyr Ariev, was elected the assembly vice president.
He is certain to lead the opposition to any relaxation in sanctions against
Russia and a fierce battle is likely to be waged, given the high risks involved.
It’s too early to say what the outcome will be.

The U.S. peace proposal this week will be based on the
introduction of UN peacekeepers to restore control of the Ukrainian-Russian
border within the occupied territory. We are confident that Russia will never
accept this condition as it would severely hinder its ability to provide
supplies to its proxies in Donbas and maintain control. If no progress is made,
another round of U.S. sanctions is being planned, according to the ft.com
report.

But while the U.S. remains hawkish on imposing
sanctions, the EU is getting exhausted and is increasingly interested in
compromise, as confirmed by Jagland’s declared intentions that we believe will
weaken the U.S. position going into the talks. Moreover, we are confident the
Russians won’t make any sharp moves ahead of the March 2018 presidential
elections, though the ft.com report indicated that the talks are meant to lay
the groundwork for post-election talks.