The president’s signature on the Donbas reintegration
bill, approved by Ukraine’s parliament on Jan. 18, is likely delayed by at
least two weeks after MPs with the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc submitted a
resolution that must be voted upon before the bill is signed. Their resolution
to cancel the Jan. 18 vote on the bill was registered in parliament on Jan. 19
but can’t be reviewed until parliament reconvenes the week of Feb. 5. The
parliamentary speaker and the president can’t sign the bill until their
resolution is reviewed.
Russian President Putin convened a Jan. 19 meeting of
the nation’s Security Council to discuss the implications of Ukraine’s
Donbas reintegration bill. The legislation will influence the prospects
of ‘Ukraine’s internal handling’ of the conflict “in the most negative way,”
the council determined, as reported by the Kremlin’s website. They stressed
that there are no alternatives to the Minsk Accords and the Normandy Format
peace process, which involves the Ukrainian, Russian, French and Germans
leaders.
Zenon Zawada: The
parliamentary speaker might find some legal loopholes to avoid the two-week
delay created by the Opposition Bloc MPs, but in all likelihood the bill will
be stuck in the pipeline before it’s certainly signed by the speaker and the
president. It’s revealing that the U.S. and the EU have yet to comment on the
legislation, indicating that their diplomats had not given their rubber stamp
on it despite extensive consultations. U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch
confirmed as much when telling the RBK Ukraine news agency that she could not
comment on the legislation until she read its final version.
The Russian government is roiled by the Donbas
reintegration bill because it establishes the legal foundation for its criminal
activities in Ukraine that makes prosecution possible, among many other
reasons. It has developed the narrative that the legislation has buried the
peace process, in what we view as a possible attempt to create a moral argument
for further military aggression. Given its fierce hostility, we don’t expect
success in getting it overturned in parliament, despite the efforts of the
Opposition Bloc faction.