Tymoshenko leads polls for March 2019 presidential election

Former prime minister and political prisoner Yulia
Tymoshenko is the most popular candidate for president in Ukraine, according to
poll conducted by the Kyiv-based Rating sociological group whose results were
released on Dec. 21. Ukraine’s next presidential elections are scheduled for
March 2019. Of those planning to vote and have decided, 15.8% will cast their
ballot for Tymoshenko, 13.8% for Ukrainian President Poroshenko and 9.6% for
Western-groomed pop star Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. Another four candidates have 5%
support or more, two of which are Russian-oriented (Vadim Rabinovych at 8.4%
and Yuriy Boyko at 7.0%).

More Ukrainians support Poroshenko finishing his
presidential term until March 2019, according to the same poll. About 45% believe
Poroshenko should be able finish his term, while 38% believe he should be
removed immediately. The poll was conducted of 1,000 respondents between
November 22 and 30.

Zenon Zawada:
Tymoshenko’s polling results are impressive, particularly considering that this
poll included Vakarchuk, who is popular among the under-50 demographic. We
don’t see Tymoshenko’s style of governing being much different from
Poroshenko’s, which has been the standard post-Soviet oligarchic approach of
using government to enhance one’s personal wealth while reluctantly complying
with Western demands. Tymoshenko heavily relies on populist tactics, which
Poroshenko has also done.

However, the key demographic in these elections
will be those 50 years old and over, who make up a large portion of the
population and are more disciplined in their voting. And they will support
those presidential candidates promising overall stability, particularly with
consumer prices and pensions. It’s possible that Poroshenko and Tymoshenko will
split this vote, enabling Vakarchuk to pull ahead. Yet this latest poll merely
confirms that Tymoshenko will be Poroshenko’s main challenger yet again. Yet
Poroshenko has the advantage as the incumbent.