Trump preparing to approve Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine

The U.S. government is preparing to offer Ukraine
“strengthened defense capabilities,” the U.S. State Department said on Dec. 23,
as reported by the Reuters news agency. The statement didn’t offer any more
specifics. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump is reported to be preparing to
announce his approval of supplying Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine,
reported the abcnews.go.com news site, citing anonymous sources in the State
Department. The supply – which would include 210 anti-tank missiles and 35
rocket launchers worth a total of USD 47 mln – would require U.S. congressional
approval within 30 days. The State Department declined any comment on the
report.

The U.S. government has “crossed the line” in
announcing its intention to supply Ukraine “armaments of direct striking
ability,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Riabkov, as reported on
the ministry website. This is happening “now not in the framework of commercial
contacts, which U.S. companies have been quietly doing for a long time, but
from the state,” he said. “Javelin rocket complexes are being discussed as a
start. In any case, U.S. arms are capable of inflicting new victims in our
neighboring country.” The U.S. is trying to portray itself as an intermediary,
but instead is acting as an accomplice in escalating war, Riabkov said.

Zenon Zawada: Riabkov’s
reaction reflects our consistent view on this issue for the last year, which
has been that the supply of lethal defensive weapons, particularly from the
U.S. government, will be interpreted as an aggressive gesture by the Russian
government, which will be prompted to escalate the warfare.

We don’t expect any escalations until after the
March 2018 presidential elections, in which Russian President Putin will gain
his fourth term. Afterwards, we expect enough escalations to influence the
Ukrainian parliamentary elections of October 2019. We expect an increasing
number of exhausted and demoralized residents of southeast Ukraine will vote
for Russian-oriented parties calling for peace.