U.S. sanctions in February should force Russian surrender in Donbas, Klimkin says

A list of U.S. sanctions imposed against more members
of Russian President Putin’s entourage, which will be made public in February,
should force the Russian government to agree to the presence of UN peacekeepers
in Donbas and withdraw it forces, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told
Ukrainian television on Dec. 16. “Not only will a list of Russian assets be
published, but as I understand it, also the assets of many Russian oligarchs
who back the Russian regime,” Klimkin said.

Zenon Zawada: Most
certainly, many powerful Russians targeted by the sanctions are dissatisfied
with them because they restrict their ability to travel and engage in business.
The question has been whether Putin will be able to keep them in line in order
to relax the sanctions without surrendering in Ukraine. So far, he has been
able to convince his elites to remain patient, likely with the promise that
European legislatures will soon grow tired of the trade blockade and start to
relax sanctions.

We believe Klimkin is optimistic in his
expectations for 2018. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) is already itching to relax sanctions, which we identified as a trigger
for other European legislations. We also expect more electoral gains for Far
Right, anti-immigrant parties in Europe, which are aligned with the Kremlin. So
Putin understands that the political winds are blowing in his favor and all he
has to do is to convince his elites to wait it out. Whether they will remains
to be seen.