Russia planning to falsify 2019 Ukraine elections, SBU says

Russian intelligence services are developing a plan to
falsify the 2019 elections in Ukraine, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Deputy
Head Viktor Kononenko told a forum in Kyiv on Nov. 28, as reported by Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “The main threat today is a disruption of the
situation from within,” he said. “The main efforts of the Russian intelligence
services are directed inside the country. No one believes in a quick and
lightning-fast war. They all are counting on replacing the government by means
of vote-buying and agreements. A complex effort is being conducted in
preparation for the 2019 elections.” The SBU is currently working to disrupt
these plans, he said.

If presidential elections were held this week, 9.8% of
Ukrainians would vote for President Petro Poroshenko, 8.8% would vote for
pro-EU populist Yulia Tymoshenko, 7.4% would vote for intellectual pop star
Saviatoslav Vakarchuk, 5.7% would vote for Russian-oriented oligarch Yuriy
Boyko and 5.6% would vote for pro-EU reformer Anatoliy Grytsenko. If
parliamentary elections were held this week, 9.7% would vote for Tymoshenko’s
Fatherland party, 9.4% for the Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc, 6.4% for Boyko’s
Opposition Bloc, 6.2% for Grytsenko’s Civic Position and 5.7% for the
Russian-oriented For Life party led by Vadim Rabinovich.

The poll was jointly conducted by four leading Kyiv
polling firms between Oct. 28 and Nov. 14 of 20,000 respondents. Presidential
elections are tentatively scheduled for March 2019, while parliamentary
elections are scheduled for October 2019.

Zenon Zawada: As we
stated in our political report released on Sept. 21, Russia’s decision to
extend its campaign of military aggression in Ukraine will largely depend upon
the results of the 2019 elections. If a Russian-oriented parliamentary
opposition emerges, which we believe is a more likely possibility, then Russian
President Putin will gain new momentum to extend the aggression, achieve
Ukraine’s capitulation and return the territory under his control. Moreover,
European politicians will gain even more excuses to relax sanctions by then.
Where we disagree with the SBU is that Russia will employ methods other than
vote falsification to skew the elections in favor of their candidates. These
include intensifying the warfare in Donbas throughout 2018-19 in order to
persuade the public to vote for Russian-oriented candidates calling for
immediate peace. Another method are mass media reports calling for the need to
renew economic cooperation, which are already being broadcast.

The poll figures reveal
that a lot of falsification won’t be necessary. Two of the five parties that
can qualify for parliament are Russian-oriented and capable of forming the
parliamentary opposition with their combined vote. Moreover, Poroshenko is more
interested in a Russian-oriented parliamentary opposition emerging rather than
a pro-Western progressive opposition that is oriented towards a faster pace of
more radical reforms. In that context, we view the SBU official’s comments as a
possible pretext for authoritarian methods that are increasingly common for the
Poroshenko administration.