Russian business must be ready to meet war-time needs, Putin says

Russian businesses must be ready to meet war-time
needs at any moment, Russian President Putin told a meeting of world military
chiefs in Sochi on Nov. 22. “The ability of our economy to increase military
production and services at a given time is one of the most important aspects of
military security,” Putin said, as reported by the independent.co.uk news site.
“To this end, all strategic, and simply large-scale enterprise, should be
ready, regardless of ownership.” A day earlier, Putin spoke of the need to
catch up and overtake the West in military technology. “Our army and navy need
to have the very best equipment – better than foreign equivalents,” he said.
“If we want to win, we have to do better.”

A Ukrainian citizen who worked in Russia for more than
three years told border officials the Russian military have brought a large
amount of armored vehicles to the border with Ukraine. Between 20-30 vehicles
were brought to the border two to three times per month, he said, as reported
by the State Border Service on Nov. 22. “Russian soldiers said they were going
to the Rostov region to conduct military training near the border with
Ukraine,” said the Ukrainian who was detained by border officials. “But from
personal observation I can say that a lot fewer vehicles returned.”

The Heritage Foundation, among the leading think tanks
in Washington, released a paper on Nov. 22 calling for U.S. President Trump to
authorize the sale of lethal, defensive weapons to Ukraine, including Javelin
anti-tank missiles. The paper, authored by Luke Coffey, also suggests allow
U.S. military officials to be present on the frontlines. Meantime, the latest
unit of U.S. military instructors arrived at the Yavorivskiy military base in
Ukraine’s western Lviv region this week, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
reported. They replaced another American unit, which served for 10 months
alongside instructions from other NATO countries. About 400 instructors are
training Ukrainian soldiers who are dispatched to fight in Donbas against
Russian-backed forces.

A U.S. armaments manufacturer is already selling
lethal, defensive weapons to Ukraine, the Voice of America news site reported
this week. PSRL rocket launchers, produced by the Texas-based AirTronic firm,
have a reach of 1,000 meters, which limits their potential to defensive
strikes, the report said. The Ukrainian military began purchasing the rocket
launchers since last year in close coordination with the U.S. Embassy in
Ukraine, the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Defense Department.

Zenon Zawada: Regardless
of what one thinks about how to deal with Russian aggression, war is bad for
business and investment. Unfortunately, all these events merely reflect the
increasing likelihood of escalating warfare in Ukraine, which merely adds risk
to businessmen and makes Ukraine a less appealing destination for foreign
investors.

Regardless of whether Trump approves the weapons
funding and sales (we will be surprised if he does since that would violate one
of his key campaign platforms), we expect Putin to escalate the warfare in
Donbas to some degree in the run up to the 2019 elections to help
Russian-oriented candidates and parties. We expect them to perform well
regardless because they are calling for peace, which is appealing to an
exhausted, demoralized public.