Ukraine 9M17 goods trade deficit reaches USD 3.9 bln

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached USD 3.9 bln in
9M17 compared to USD 1.9 bln a year ago, the State Statistics Service reported
on Nov. 14. Total imports grew 27.3% yoy, while exports increased 21.1% yoy in
9M17.

Goods exports grew on the back of mineral products
(53% yoy), food oils (27% yoy), food (25% yoy), metals (17% yoy), grains (15%
yoy), and machinery (14% yoy). Goods imports swelled owing to energy (58% yoy),
vehicles (51% yoy), metals (29% yoy), machinery (25% yoy) and chemicals (14%
yoy).  Non-energy imports grew 19.7% yoy in 9M17, slightly accelerating
from 19.3% yoy growth in 8M17.

Exports to the EU gained momentum at 29.1% yoy growth
in 9M17 (compared to 27.9% yoy growth in 8M17). Exports to the CIS countries
kept slowing, having grown 17.1% yoy in 9M17 compared to 18.8% yoy in 8M17.

Alexander Paraschiy: The goods
trade deficit widened as we expected, while the recent customs statistics are
revealing that the deficit will acclerate further. For 10M17, customs data
report a USD 4.7 bln deficit compared to a USD 2.1 bln deficit a year ago.

This figure already exceeds our initial forecast
for a USD 4.4 bln trade deficit for the total year (according to UkrStat
methodology). Against this backdrop, we are revising our 2017 trade deficit
estimate to USD 5.4 bln by the year end.