Poroshenko leads polls for presidential, parliamentary elections

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his Solidarity party lead the poll ratings among Ukrainians, according to a survey performed by Kyiv’s Razumkov Center between Oct. 6 and 11. If presidential elections were held today, Poroshenko would earn 14.0% of votes of those who said they will participate. The pro-EU populist Yulia Tymoshenko has 8.4% support, the pro-EU reformer Anatoliy Grytsenko has 7.2%, the Russian-oriented Yuriy Boyko has 6.8%, the pro-EU rock star Sviatoslav Vakarchuk has 6.6%, the pro-EU populist Oleh Liashko has 6.3% and the Russian-oriented Vadym Rabinovych has 5.9%. The presidential elections are slated for March 2019.
 
Meanwhile, seven parties stand to qualify for parliament, five of which support EU integration. The Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc has 13.6% support of those likely to vote, Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party has 10.0%, Grytsenko’s Civic Position has 8.9%, Boyko’s Opposition Bloc has 8.6%, Rabinovych’s For Life party has 6.8%, Liashko’s Radical Party has 6.5% and the pro-EU Self-Reliance party has 5.9%.
 
The poll involved 2,018 respondents.
 
Zenon Zawada: Our position is that these elections are Poroshenko’s to lose. His chances for forming the new parliamentary majority in 2019 got a significant boost last week when protesters failed to muster enough votes in parliament to change the election system to exclusive open-list voting. Therefore Poroshenko will be able to continue cobbling together votes on legislation with single-mandate MPs.
 
Tymoshenko had been leading the polls this summer, likely owing to the successful protest against the farmland market, but has since lost momentum. The pro-EU/Russia-oriented split among parties is 44.9%/15.4%. So the Russian-oriented parties lost some momentum since the summer but still have a chance to form the parliamentary opposition in 2019. We believe support for these parties – which are willing to offer more concessions – will increase, particularly in the southeastern regions, if the Russian-backed fighters intensify their attacks in the next two years.
 
Vakarchuk is a potential wild card candidate who could foment a Trump-style upset. Not only is he a rock star (literally), but he’s an intellect who has been heavily involved in programs in the U.S., such as the Yale Greenberg World Fellows.