Poroshenko calls for UN peacekeeping to ensure peace, not freeze conflict

In his Sept. 20 address to the United Nations Security
Council, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for a UN peacekeeping
mission “to ensure peace in Donbas, not freeze the conflict. That way, justice
is renewed, and justice is the renewal of Ukraine’s sovereignty.” To accomplish
this, Poroshenko repeated the Ukrainian proposal that the peacekeeping mission
cover all of the occupied territory, including the Russian-Ukrainian border.
With its peacekeeping proposal, Russia is trying “to legalize its puppets and
freeze the conflict forever.” Poroshenko also dismissed the Russian
government’s claims that it has no presence in Donbas, demonstrating Russian
army summons collected from soldiers who were captured on Ukrainian territory.
“There are facts that Russia is creating, directing, controlling and financing
terrorist activity in Donbas,” he said.

In response, the Russian government repeated its
refusal to accept the wide mandate for a UN peacekeeping mission that has been
demanding by the Ukrainians. “Russia is not a side in this conflict so there
isn’t any sense in deploying peacekeepers to the border,” said Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Gennadiy Gatilov in an interview published on Sept. 21 on the tass.ru web site. He said the Ukrainians are making
the demand of retaking the border without first being willing to fulfill the
other points of the Minsk Accords.

Zenon Zawada:
Poroshenko’s demand that the peacekeepers be used to “ensure peace” really
means to enforce the fulfillment of the Minsk Accords. Given that progress in
implementing them hasn’t been made since February 2015, we don’t expect the
presence of UN peacekeepers will change that. Nor will peacekeepers serve as
incentive to begin to fulfill the Minsk Accords.

We don’t share Poroshenko’s view that Russia is
interested in freezing the conflict and we see that as political rhetoric. The
Russian government can withstand the sanctions for only so long, and we see its
endurance expiring by around 2020. By that time, if Russia doesn’t gain a
significant amount of loyal MPs in the Ukrainian parliament, it will either
begin to exit Donbas, or more likely, seriously begin to fulfill the Minsk
Accords. Our view is that fulfilling the Minsk Accords works to Russia’s advantage
nonetheless.