Russia trying to freeze Donbas conflict, Volker says

The Russian government is trying to freeze the
conflict in Donbas, Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative to Ukraine,
told the ft.com news site in an interview published
on Aug. 28. Russia is paying the price for this strategy with Western sanctions
that are worsening its economy, as well as conditions in Donbas, he said.
Volker called upon Russia to make a decision on whether it wants to continue
occupying Donbas and enduring Western sanctions, otherwise U.S-Russia relations
will continue to “limp” further.

German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron
issued a joint statement on Aug. 28 calling on the Russian and Ukrainian
governments to make more efforts to uphold a ceasefire that was brokered on
Aug. 22 and began on Aug. 25. “Numerous violations to the ceasefire regime are
still occurring, including the use of heavy artillery. The OSCE monitoring
mission continues to report on threats to its personnel and restrictions on
their movement, particularly on territory not controlled by the Ukrainian
government,” the statement said, calling upon Presidents Putin and Poroshenko
to fulfill their obligations clearly support the ceasefire and ensure that
instructions are given to the military.

Zenon Zawada: Ceasefires
being declared and then violated is nothing new in this three-year war.
Meanwhile, Volker’s observation about Russia freezing the conflict in Donbas is
logical considering that Moscow has already done so in the former Soviet
republics of Moldova and Georgia. Both freezing the conflict, as well as
fulfilling the Minsk Accords, work to Russia’s advantage in preventing Ukraine
from integrating into Euro-Atlantic structures.

The big question remains on how long Russia can
withstand the Western economic sanctions to continue its aggression against
Ukraine. With his comments, Volker implied that time is running out before the
Russian economy begins to deteriorate. His comment that the conflict in Donbas
“is becoming worse and continues to worsen if we do nothing” implies that the
U.S. will continue to back Ukraine, possibly even extending such support to
lethal defensive weapons (though we see that as unlikely).