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Volker, Surkov exchange new approaches to Minsk Accords

Volker, Surkov exchange new approaches to Minsk Accords

22 August 2017

Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative to
Ukraine, met on Aug. 21 in Minsk with Vladyslav Surkov, a foreign policy
advisor to Russian President Putin, to discuss resolving the conflict between
their governments over Ukraine. In particular, “both sides proposed fresh ideas
and innovative approaches” to fulfill the Minsk Accords, said Surkov, as
reported by the Interfax news agency. They agreed to continue work, topics for
the next meeting and that the peace process needs to be quicker both at the political
and security levels, he said, adding that it was a “good meeting.”

 

Ahead of the meeting, the wsj.com
news site reported that Volker attempted to find out what steps Russia would be
willing to take to resolve the conflict in Donbas. The meeting occurred amid
the possibility that the White House would approve plans by the State and
Defense Departments to supply anti-tank missiles and other defensive weapons to
Ukraine, the report said.

 

Zenon Zawada: The only
way to get anywhere with the Minsk Accords is to do exactly what Volker did
yesterday, which is to attempt innovative approaches. Yet it’s important to
remain focused on why Russia refuses to comply with the Minsk Accords, which is
that it wants to regain full geopolitical control over Ukrainian territory (not
just Donbas and Crimea).

 

In light of this, the U.S. strategy needs to be to
convince the Russians of the need to compromise, which is to fulfill the Minsk
Accords and limit the extent of their influence over Ukraine to the Donbas
enclave. The recently intensified sanctions will work towards that goal, but
Russian President Putin won’t compromise on Ukraine unless he’s able to save
face, which also has to be Volker’s goal.

 

In short, we believe the Russian leadership won’t
compromise on Donbas (and fulfill the Minsk Accords) before the 2019 elections.
Given the weak popularity of President Poroshenko and his party, the Russians
are still holding out hope that a Russian-oriented president and/or
parliamentary majority could emerge. While that seems unlikely, history has
shown numerous shocking outcomes in post-Soviet politics.

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