Ukraine goods trade deficit shrinks to USD 0.7 bln in 1Q17

Ukraine’s trade deficit in goods was USD 736 mln in 1Q17 vs. a USD 1.0 bln deficit a year ago, the State Statistics Service announced on May 15. Exports jumped 34.4% yoy in 1Q17 (up from +32.7% yoy in 2M17), as did imports with 27.3% yoy growth (vs. +22.1% yoy in 2M17).  Export increases included minerals (+89% yoy), metals (+42% yoy), food oil (+36% yoy) and food (+35% yoy). Imports increased on the back of energy (+65% yoy), vehicles (+60% yoy) and machinery (+30% yoy). Non-energy imports grew 18.0% yoy in 1Q17 rising from +14.1% yoy for 2M17. 

Exports expanded by 41.4% yoy to CIS countries and by 24.5% yoy to the EU in 1Q17.

Alexander Paraschiy: The March numbers still depict high resource prices on the global market. However, by April the situation had begun to change already. Provisional fiscal statistics on customs collections show a substantial slowdown of commodity exports to single-digit growth (close to 8% yoy) vs. double-digit exports expansion over the first three months of the year. At the same time, customs statistics still report two-digit commodity imports expansion in April (close to 20% yoy). As a result, the provisional trade deficit was estimated to start expanding from April (more than USD 400 mln deficit vs. a USD 81 mln surplus a year ago). Given this change of trend, our initial projection of a USD 4.4 bln of trade deficit for 2017 (according to UkrStat methodology) remains valid.