Eyes turn toward Munich and Bonn as Donbas heavy weapons pull back

The next Normandy format meeting of the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia may be moved to Munich, Interfax reported on Feb. 15, citing a diplomatic source. The event would then take place on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which will be held Feb. 17-19. The ministers had been slated to meet in Bonn at the G20 meeting on Feb. 17.

The meeting comes on the heels of the Feb. 15 Minsk talks that produced an agreement by Ukraine, Russia, and breakaway republic chiefs to withdraw heavy weapons from the line of contact in Donbas. The pull-back should be completed by Feb. 20.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the meeting between U.S. secretary of state Rex Tillerson and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will not cover Crimea, as the peninsula is an integral part of Russia, despite White House demands that Crimea be returned to Ukraine. Tillerson and Lavrov will meet for the first time at the G20 meeting in Bonn.

James Hydzik: The removal of heavy weaponry from the line of contact is a relief. However, it is also a reminder that the relative speed at which the fighting in Donbas can be scaled up or down has not changed and that a flare up can be orchestrated at any time. Peskov’s statement that Crimea will not be discussed by the U.S. and Russia in Bonn is not a surprise, either, but it does reflect a hardening of stances. We do not see any evidence of the U.S. administration attempting to separate Crimea sanctions from Donbas and election-related sanctions, and recent Russian sabre rattling will not encourage the Trump administration to do so. We see no reason to expect a change at Munich.