U.S President-Elect Donald Trump said in two interviews this weekend that he plans to reach deals with Russian President Putin in exchange for removing sanctions. “Russia’s hurting very badly right now because of sanctions, but I think something can happen that a lot of people are going to benefit,” he told thetimes.co.uk news site in an interview published on Jan. 15.
In that interview, Trump mentioned the prospect of further dismantling nuclear arms, which the news site said could be exchanged for removing Crimea-related sanctions. In another interview published on the wsj.com news site on Jan. 14, Trump said he would consider removing sanctions related to the Russian hacking of the Democrat Party, though he added that they would remain “at least for a period of time.”
U.S. President Barack Obama signed three executive orders on Jan. 13 extending by one year sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation for the illegal annexation of Crimea until March 6, 2018. Obama also expanded the Crimea-related sanctions. “The actions and policies addressed in these executive orders continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the U.S.,” the White House reported on Jan. 13.
Zenon Zawada: Trump is capable of rescinding all of Obama’s executive orders imposing sanctions against Russia. Yet they will be encoded into law owing to legislation already approved by the U.S. House and to be approved by the U.S. Senate this week, before Obama leaves office. We expect Trump will strike deals with Putin in the first months of his presidency, yet he will find fierce opposition in the U.S. Congress.
If Trump’s first year in office is successful in boosting the U.S. economy, we expect he will gain significant support in the U.S. Congress by the year end to pursue his foreign policy goals in Russia. Meanwhile, we expect the EU will take the first steps towards relaxing Crimea-related sanctions in the second half of this year.