Ukraine deputy minister opposes Donbas elections for 2-3 years

George Tuka, the deputy minister of temporarily occupied territories, made some controversial statements about the Minsk Accords peace process in recent days that conflict with the president’s official policy. He said elections can be held no earlier than 2-3 years after Donbas is freed from Russian occupation. In the meantime, a military-civilian administration can govern the freed territory, he told the Espreso television network.

Striking an usually optimistic note, Tuka said he expects Ukraine will return control over Russian-occupied Donbas this year, or the middle of 2018 at the latest, he wrote in a column for nv.ua news site published on Jan. 2. He said the Ukrainian government will take the necessary initiative and return the territory on its own conditions, rather than those insisted by Russia. He said there’s a mass of evidence that Russia is ready to surrender Donbas. And he called for a military resolution to the conflict.

“Complete marauding, stripping and destruction of enterprises is occurring in Donbas,” Tuka wrote. “They’re practically condemning the region to economic death. This isn’t happening in Crimea. Instead the Russian government is forcing large private companies to invest in Crimean business projects and infrastructure.” 

Zenon Zawada: Tuka’s statement about Donbas elections in 2-3 years contradicts the official position of the Normandy Format that elections be held before Ukrainian control is established over the territory. Moreover, Western leaders are aiming for elections to be held this year (though they have tried that for two years now).

In all, Tuka’s expectations are overly optimistic. His vision of the Ukrainian government taking initiative to resolve the conflict is inconsistent with the actions of the Poroshenko administration so far, which has shifted much initiative and decision-making on Western allies. It’s hard to imagine Poroshenko taking any steps without Western direction. 

Tuka’s positive thinking and visualization of success deserves admiration, but returning Donbas on Ukrainian terms, by military means, is also fantastic. No matter how bad economic conditions are in Donbas, the Russian government is not going to let go of such a valuable yoke placed on the neck of Ukrainians without something valuable in return.