Ukraine goods trade deficit expands to USD 1.8 bln for 9M16

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit for 9M16 reached USD 1.76 bln compared to a USD 0.70 bln surplus a year ago (and a USD 1.47 bln deficit for 8M16), according to state statistics reported on Nov 14.

For 9M16, goods exports fell 8.7% yoy in line with sliding chemicals (-32% yoy), minerals (-20% yoy), metals (-18% yoy) and machinery (-9% yoy).  Food oil exports grew 21% yoy for 9M16.

Goods imports were reported flat yoy in 9M16 with energy imports falling 39% yoy and vehicles imports (+72% yoy) and machinery imports (+27% yoy) gaining momentum.

Exports to the EU increased 4.4% yoy while exports to CIS countries shrunk by 27.1% yoy in 9M16. 

Alexander Paraschiy: The September external account trends kept the trajectory we initially outlined. Imports are recovering fast both on the back of natural gas (1.5 bcm in September, 1.4 bcm in August and 0.4 bcm in July) and non-energy goods (+18.6% yoy for 9M16). At the same time, goods exports still are in red. In October and November, we might see a better exports performance owing to rising prices for metals and iron ore. Also we expect imports to perform much stronger amid continued hryvnia stability and gradually recovering domestic consumption. So we anticipate the trade deficit expanding further through 4Q16 and we are sticking to our initial 2016 trade deficit forecast of USD 3.5 bln (according to UkrStat methodology).