Normandy Format leaders agree to draft road map to implement Minsk

The heads of state of the Normandy Format agreed on Oct. 19 to draft a road map to implement all the Minsk agreements in resolving the armed conflict in Donbas, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told the press after a four-hour meeting. The road map will consist of political, security and humanitarian measures, he said. “Only a year-and-a-half ago, no one even wanted to hear about a road map,” he said, referring to the Russian side. Now it will be developed by the end of November and signed by the Normandy format leaders (including French President Hollande, German Chancellor Merkel, Russian President Putin).

Among the most critical steps to be included in the road map is the removal of foreign armies from the occupied territory for planned local elections and the introduction of an OSCE police mission to provide security for the elections process and the transition period, the president said, referring to the transition to autonomy status. The road map also calls for the OSCE to establish posts across the border between occupied Donbas and Russia. Diplomats will also discuss preparing the election law and process, though the date hasn’t yet been set, he said. It was also agreed to withdraw soldiers from four fronts, including the fought-over transit hub of Debaltseve, after the first three fronts are cleared as agreed, he said.

In her turn, Merkel said Ukraine should regain full control of the occupied border “only at the end of the process.” Arming the OSCE police mission will be discussed only after the election law and process is prepared, she said. In his turn, Putin said he agrees to expanding the OSCE mission to the zones of removal and maintaining military hardware, reported the RIA Novosti news agency. He offered few other comments except that the sides agreed that any resolution to the conflict needs to be based on the Minsk Accords.

Zenon Zawada: From the West’s perspective, the road map is an attempt towards progress. As with any agreement with Russia however, a concession from its side must always be accompanied by a greater demand. We are confident that the only way an OSCE police mission can be introduced to Donbas – to the deep extent as it was described by the president – is if a sizable contingent of nationals of Russia and Russia-sphere countries is included in the mission.

Of course, this is a recipe for disaster and Ukraine will reject such a proposal. It remains unclear whether the Europeans will accept such a proposal, particularly if it’s couched in the language of “fairness” and “democracy.” Other agreements reached were almost comical, such as the plan to withdraw soldiers from Debaltseve, as we are confident the Russians will never surrender this trophy.

The Ukrainian concession on regaining control of the border will be rejected outright by Ukraine’s paramilitaries and nationalists, who said they will violently oppose any elections without Ukrainian control. The Ukrainian leadership is well aware of the danger they pose. Given the nuances outlined here, we believe this road map will never be implemented. But from the Western perspective, at least an effort was made.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin had been pushing hard for this road map, and the agreement to begin work on it is a moral victory for him. But we believe the value of the road map is not so much its schedule of tasks that need to be accomplished, but rather that it can be used by the Ukrainian government as a public relations instrument to demonstrate to the world that it’s truly the Russian side that is failing to uphold the Minsk Accords.