Russia preparing for next Normandy Format meeting

The Russian government is preparing for the next Normandy Format meeting to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas, said on Oct. 10 Russian Presidential Administration Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, as reported by RIA Novosti. The dates have yet to be determined, he said.

Harsh conditions are being imposed on Ukraine to resolve the war in Donbas, MP Mustafa Nayyem wrote on his Facebook page on Oct. 7. They include parliamentary approval of a law on local elections, followed by constitutional amendments to create a special status after the removal of forces from a two-kilometer zone. The proposal doesn’t call from the removal of Russian military hardware or armies, not restoring control of the border by Ukraine or the OSCE, for that matter. 

Nayyem, elected to parliament with the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, didn’t disclose who was responsible for advocating the proposal. Another condition is a truce, yet the proposal doesn’t offer any guarantees from the West or consequences if Russia violates the truce. “An attempt to push through parliament constitutional amendments and an elections law for the occupied territory, without security guarantees, can lead to protests, provocations, or civil resistance, which in one way or another delegitimize Ukraine’s parliament and the president,” he wrote.

Zenon Zawada: Ukraine’s pro-Western politicians are very careful to avoid criticizing the West, but we can confidently fill in the blanks left by Nayyem in stating that key Western leaders are imposing these conditions, very possibly within the Normandy Format. These efforts are nothing new, having been attempted early this year with disappointed expectations they’d be fulfilled by the summer.

We still believe the attempt to impose the Minsk Accords – with the first step of local elections without the necessary preconditions (removal of troops, restoring border control) – confirms the lack of clarity and understanding on behalf of the Western leadership in resolving this conflict. As further proof, Ukraine experts from the European Parliament such as Rebecca Harms have spoken out against holding elections without the necessary preconditions. So there is not even a consolidated position among Western leaders.

The Russian leadership sees this lack of clarity and consolidation and is manipulating it to its advantage. It will never agree to removing troops and restoring border control, in our view. Yet it will have a win-win situation if elections are imposed by the West. The Russian-backed Donbas rebels will get a step towards autonomy, or as Nayyem correctly pointed out, they will get destabilization within Ukraine. We agree with Nayyem that there’s a high risk of destabilization in Ukraine if the local elections are imposed without the necessary preconditions. Nationalists and paramilitaries have already warned about their possible hostile moves.