Emerging out of the diplomatic dead end in Donbas won’t be possible without ongoing political pressure from the European Union and the entire civilized world, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said in an interview published on Sept. 12 by Die Welt. Sanctions must be kept in place until results emerge from the Minsk Accords, he said, also criticizing the EU for “an absence of a single strategy and common political will.” He stressed the need for defense armaments and communications technology from the West.
Zenon Zawada: As much as the West might not satisfy Klimkin currently, the situation could turn worse very soon. Russia will have stakes in three critical elections in the West, starting with the U.S. presidency in November, the French presidency in spring 2017 and the German chancellorship in late 2017. Any of these elections have the potential to turn the tide, but so far the political winds are in Russia’s favor.
Ukrainian President Poroshenko should have spent the last two years putting his country on an intense program of economic modernization and development, becoming increasingly self-reliant. His failure to do so has left Ukraine excessively dependent on the West, which could realistically turn warm to Putin in the next six-eight months. The Ukrainian government should already be drafting contingency plans for adverse results of the presidential elections in the U.S. and France.