Ukraine, U.S. agree to five-year defense cooperation

Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak and U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter signed on Sept. 8 in London a concept paper on developing cooperation and partnership for the next five years, reported the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, citing a Ukraine Defense Ministry statement. The concept paper is aimed at supporting Ukrainian defense reforms and fulfilling programs of bilateral cooperation, transferring military hardware, offering services and preparing personnel, the statement said. It identifies four main directors of development: improving Ukraine’s defense capability, implementing reforms to create a modern army, improving defense planning and administering resources to prepare, develop and equip the army.

John Abizaid, the retired U.S. general and former U.S. Central Command commander, has been appointed to serve as an advisor to Ukrainian Defense Minister Poltorak, the U.S. Defense Ministry reported after the meeting of Carter and Poltorak. Abizaid will be responsible for consulting Ukrainian military leadership on implementing reforms that will bring the Armed Forces up to Western standards and principles. This includes strengthening civil control over the Armed Forces, organizing a hierarchy compatible with NATO and rooting out corruption.

Zenon Zawada: The Russian leadership will perceive this partnership agreement, and Abizaid’s appointment, as the latest step by the U.S. to threaten Russia security that will need to be eliminated somehow.

We see a heightened risk of renewed military aggression by Russia in Ukraine if Hillary Clinton is elected U.S. president and Western sanctions remain in place for 2017. The ongoing sanctions will further back Putin into a corner out of which his only options will be to retreat from Donbas and Crimea, which he won’t do, or expand military aggression.

On the other hand, a Donald Trump presidency will serve as a détente in relations, which will eliminate tensions over Crimea (surrendering it to Russia) and remove sanctions related to the Crimean annexation, and possibly those related to the military aggression in Donbas as well. A temporary peace will have been achieved at the expense of enforcing international law and punishing Russia.