Minsk peace talks go on recess until end-August

The Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the Donbas conflict has gone on recess without any agreement, reported on Aug. 3 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The security subgroup will continue to discuss diluting forces and create a security zone in the future, said OSCE Representative Martin Sajdik. Meanwhile, the humanitarian subgroup views as necessary the mediation of the Red Cross in prisoner exchange, he said.

Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the humanitarian subgroup, said Ukraine’s parliament must approve a local elections law before security is established in Donbas, a position that contradicts the Ukrainian government’s stance that security be first established. The next meeting is planned for Aug. 26 in Minsk.

The Trilateral Contract Group has yet to address the violations to the ceasefire regime in its negotiations, OSCE official Alexander Hug told a German television network in an interview broadcast on Aug. 3. “None of the tens of thousands of violations, and none of the restrictions on our freedom of movement as observers, has become a subject for discussion,” he said, adding that the lack of punishment will encourage further violations.

Zenon Zawada: When the Minsk talks reconvene, they will be starting from Square One. They have shown a rather dismal record since first meeting in July 2014. As we’ve stated, we don’t expect any progress in the fall since the Russian side has been strengthened by the populist wave that has swept Europe and is now reaching the U.S. We expect Russia and its Donbas leaders to keep posturing and stalling at the talks while lobbying to drop the sanctions in Western legislatures. 

We should add that it’s particularly odd to see Medvedchuk representing Ukraine at the talks. He has been a fierce opponent of Ukraine’s Western integration and is a close confidante to Putin, widely considered to be his righthand man in Ukraine. His ongoing presence in Minsk is a detriment and leads us to believe that the Ukrainian president has alternative agendas surrounding the war.