Two new reform-oriented parties forming in Ukraine

Two new reform-oriented political parties are being formed in Ukraine, according to recent news reports. The first party involves former deputy prosecutor generals Vitaliy Kasko and David Sakvarelidze, whose reform efforts were supported by the U.S. government but met with resistance by the Poroshenko administration. “The stage of preliminary consultations has concluded,” Kasko stated on his Facebook page, adding that it has begun forming local organizations. The party has yet to declare a name and it could eventually be led by Odesa Regional Administration Head Mikheil Saakashvili, said Petro Poroshenko Bloc MP Viktor Chumak, among its founders.

Another group of reformers, led by Democratic Alliance Head Vasyl Gatsko and MP Serhiy Leshchenko of the Poroshenko Bloc, plan to hold a closed meeting on June 29 to create what Leshchenko referred to in a  June 25 interview as a “right wing-liberal party that is committed to the principles of free markets, privatization, human rights, and non-discrimination.” It will be financed by small and medium business, as well as donations from citizens, said the same day Gatsko, who stressed along with Leshchenko the party’s anti-oligarch agenda, rejecting any financing from them. Leshchenko estimated at least 10 percent of the Ukrainian electorate is ready to support such a party.

Zenon Zawada: We were under the impression that a single party would emerge this year uniting all the reformers, who splintered into various parties following the EuroMaidan and saw their influence utterly diluted. Now we’re seeing two separate parties form, which would dilute the reform vote not only among themselves, but with existing reform-oriented parties such as Self-Reliance.

It’s positive to see reform-oriented parties forming, but they will not be effective unless there are not more than two of them competing. Preferably, all of Ukraine’s reform leaders and activists will unite into one single powerful party by the time the next parliamentary elections roll around, which could be as early as this year, but more likely next year.

For the next parliamentary elections, we see four major groups: the patronage electorate (usually in the 20% range), the populist-nationalist electorate (10-20%), EU-oriented reformers (10-20%), and the Russian-oriented electorate (10%).