Great Britain votes in favor of leaving European Union

The British public voted in favor of leaving the European Union in its June 23 referendum, according to official results reported by BBC. About 52 percent cast their ballots for leaving, while 48% voted against, with nearly all the votes counted. The results, which were confirmed after midnight, roiled the global markets, prompting the British pound to plunge to its lowest level in 31 years against the U.S. dollars in afterhours trading.

Zenon Zawada: The “leave” vote enhances Russia’s position in Ukraine immensely. We expect the Russians to intensify their lobbying efforts in the next six months in the EU to weaken the sanctions, or remove as much of them as possible, especially considering that Great Britain has been among the staunchest supporters of the sanctions. The vote also means that Russia will be less willing to make compromises in order to fulfill the Minsk accords, emboldened with the belief that it can remove the sanctions in the parliaments of the EU.   

What this could imply in the mid-term is freezing the conflict in Donbas, without the need for elections, and the gradual normalization of relations between Russia and Ukraine, with much of the trade embargoes being gradually removed. Ukrainian President Poroshenko has always been willing to seek compromises with Putin and will continue to do so. If the quality of life for the Ukrainian public improves under such conditions, Poroshenko and his party will subsequently gain more support. Poroshenko could even gain credit for ending the war.