Ukraine ambassador condemns UN head’s Russia remarks

Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Nations Volodymyr Yelchenko expressed his outrage on June 16 with a speech prepared by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russia “as a critical role to play … in addressing other pressing global issues, from ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, to safeguarding human rights and controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” said Ban’s prepared statement, which was not delivered, according to the Reuters news agency. The delivered version did not mention Ukraine but said Moscow “has a very important role to play and I really count heavily on the leadership of the Russian Federation.”

Yelchenko told reporters he was outraged by Ban’s remarks, which came across as praise of Moscow, which is supporting armed terrorists in eastern Ukraine. The remarks praised the role of Russia in settling the conflict in Ukraine, when in fact Russia is the main source of military aggression towards Ukraine, Yelchenko said. “I don’t think that he has any moral right any more to say anything about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” he said, adding that he will submit an official protest letter.

Zenon Zawada: Given that the remarks were prepared but not delivered, we believe this is an example of carelessness within Ban’s office. Perhaps a speechwriter made a mistake, which found its way to the public. The bigger theme in this is that Russia is succeeding in promoting the narrative in the global mass media that it is merely an arbiter in this conflict, not the main source of violence. This narrative might not be consciously accepted by the global elites (and their aides), but it has affected their thinking on a subconscious level, as demonstrated by this error on Ban’s part (or on the part of his staff).

We believe Russia is winning this conflict with Ukraine on several fronts, not only in the global media. Diplomatically, it has the support of the West for the Minsk accords, the implementation of which will put the Ukrainian government on Moscow’s leash with the establishment of de facto autonomy for Donbas. Politically, Putin is as popular as ever with his people, despite the economic damage that has been done.

Russia’s main problem in this conflict is sanctions, yet we expect those to be relaxed by end-2016 or 1Q17, whether through establishing Donbas special status (and “fulfilling” the Minsk accords) or EU member-states beginning to loosen them. So what was initially perceived as a reckless geopolitical move on Putin’s part may begin to pay dividends for the autocrat by next year.

We attribute Russia’s success in its conflict with the West to its ability to exploit fundamental weaknesses in the West, the main one being resistance to mass immigration. This has been the key factor in all the current populist movements in Western nations, including the Trump and Brexit campaigns. If the British public votes in favor of leaving the EU on June 23, it will confirm suspicions that the West has been biting off more than it could chew geopolitically.