Russia opposes armed OSCE police for Donbas elections

The Russian government opposes establishing an armed international police force in the occupied territories of Donbas ahead of local elections, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told an online conference on May 31. Instead, Russia supports bolstering the authority and number of participants in the current OSCE monitoring mission, he said. Security should only be established after elections are held and de facto autonomy is established and written into the Constitution, he said.

“Suddenly the topic of security has become the main thing for (Ukrainian President) Poroshenko, and not only a ceasefire, but providing security with some kind of forces on all the territory of Donbas. I want to say that will never work in Donbas,” Lavrov said, adding, “The Ukrainians say that political reforms will begin only when security is 100 percent established during several weeks or months. But that’s impossible. It doesn’t work that way.”   

Zenon Zawada: This subject is the main sticking point at the moment in the talks to resolve the Donbas warfare. With his comments, Lavrov could merely be raising the stakes in the negotiations for local elections. But there’s an equal likelihood that the Russian government truly opposes altogether the proposal for an OSCE police force in place for elections. 

We believe Russia is now placing some of its chips on possibility of the current symptoms of “Ukraine fatigue” among EU member-states becoming inflamed by the wintertime. In which case, Russia could get its sanctions dropped (which is among goals from the Minsk accords) without holding any elections. Creating a frozen conflict could be just as effective for Russia in maintaining its grip on Kyiv as creating de facto autonomy for Donbas.